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Contents №2–2015

   Analysis and Forecast   


A.Yu. Apokin, Cand. Sc. (Ecomomics), Leader of World Economy Investigation Group of the Center of Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASTF); 
D.R. Belousov, Cand. Sc. (Ecomomics), Head of Macroeconomic Analysis Department of CMASTF; 
K.V. Mikhailenko, Cand. Sc. (Ecomomics), Leading Expert of CMASTF; 
V.A. Salnikov, Cand. Sc. (Ecomomics), Head of Real Sector of Economy Analysis Department of CMASTF; 
O.G. Solntsev, Cand. Sc. (Ecomomics), Head of Monetary and Credit Policy and Banking Sector Analysis Department of CMASTF

Contact: aapokin@forecast.ru


Development of global and Russian economy and main trends in industry

Annotation

The paper based on A.Yu. Apokin’s contribution at the seminar of the Electrocable Association (Sochi, February 2015) describes the state of the Russian economy and its real sector on the verge of the crisis of 2015. The trends in the real sector which will make the economic situation even more complicated regardless of the situation in the oil market are characterized. Some results of the scenario forecast are given: for a conservative scenario with the annual average oil price of USD58 per barrel the GDP in 2015 will be 3.6 % down; for an unfavorable scenario with a second wave of the oil price drop (annual average oil price of USD45 per barrel) and ruble devaluation the GDP will decrease by 7.7 %.

Key words

Macroeconomic forecast, Russian economy, real sector.

 Science and Technology

D.A. Bulychev, Senior Engineer; 
M.K. Kamensky, Cand. Sc. (Engineering), Head of Laboratory; A
.A. Kryuchkov, Cand. Sc. (Chemistry), Leading Research Scientist; 
D.V. Savi., Junior Research Assistant; 
T.A. Stepanova, Research Scientist; 
A.A. Frik, Group Leader; 
M.Yu. Shuvalov, Dr. Sc. (Engineering), Director of Energy Cable and Wire Division; 
JSC VNIIKP

Contact: vniikp@vniikp.ru 


Mathematical modeling used for comparative analysis of halogen-free polymer compound burning (pyrolysis) under cone calorimeter experiment conditions

Annotation
The paper presents the mathematical combustion model that was earlier developed to describe the process of thermal decomposition of halogen-free outer cable sheath compounds with regard to modeling physical and chemical processes taking place during the burning of inner cable sheath materials with a more complicated composition. Practical application of the model is described, i.e. a comparative analysis of burning of two different materials with the analysis results used to choose the most appropriate compounds both out of commercial products and of many experimental/model formulations at the stage of new material development.

Key words

Mathematical model, burning, pyrolysis, halogen-free polymer compound, fire retardant, mass loss, cone calorimeter, thermal analysis, DSC, TGA, DTA, heat release, smoke emission.
 
Standardization


G.K. Khromova, Cand. Sc. (Engineering), Quality Director – Head of Division of JSC VNIIKP
Contact: q.khromova@vniikp.ru 


Uncertainties in the technical regulation and their effect on the cable product market

Annotation

The current regulatory framework in the field of technical regulation within the Customs Union creates uncertainties which do not prevent the activities of unfair producers, suppliers, certification authorities. The transition from the mandatory confirmation of compliance with the standard norms to the confirmation of compliance with the general requirements of the technical rules and optional application of the standards caused the emergence of counterfeit cable products on the market. The results of the expert examination carried out by the JSC VNIIKP quality control department show that the large majority of the cable product specimens obtained from the consumers fail to comply with the established norms.

Key words

Technical regulation; technical rules; production certification system; certificate of conformance; counterfeit products.

M.V. Sholudenko, Cand. Sc. (Engineering), Head of Laboratory of JSC VNIIKP
Contact:
 casi4@yandex.ru
 

Cables for signalling and blocking. Current state and prospects of development of the normative base

Annotation

Plastic sheathed cables for signaling and blocking are produced in accordance with GOST 31995–2012 “Plastic sheathed polyethylene insulated cables for signalling and blocking”. Over recent years a number of cables meeting the modern requirements have been developed and manufactured according to technical specifications. On the basis of the gained experience in signalling and blocking cable production and application GOST R 56292–2014 “Cables for signalling and blocking. General technical specifications” was developed and will be brought into force on 01.07.2015. The main differences between the norms and requirements of the new standard and the current applicable ones are described.

Key words

Plastic sheathed cables for signalling and blocking; aluminium sheathed cables for signalling and blocking; GOST 31995–2012; GOST R 56292–2014; water-blocking materials; water-blocking filling; flame retardant cables for signalling and blocking.

 

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